Moni's Edge #9: Flight back to quality and in trenches.
Alpha, Early Projects, Market overview, random thoughts, and just magic – wagmi.
gm, degens!
Soo, what's inside today?
Weekly dose of:
- Market update: Cointelegraph fake news, Larry Fink shilling, bears being slaughtered;
- Friend.tech forks + GameFi plays narratives.
- Potential Catalysts and events;
- Useful threads, articles, tools and random thoughts;
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State of the Market and News
Alright, I've got a flight tomorrow that'll drain my energy, so let's quickly dive in:
Bitcoin has touched the $30k mark, and its dominance is on the rise. All the Bitcoin-related beta moves have been performing impressively (don’t fade cocombria next time).
Solana's giving the doubters a hard time.
Onchain tokens are ripping ($BITCOIN, $LBR, $JOE, $UNIBOT, $BANANA)
🦍 Seems like it's time to dive back into active trading, taking risks and ape into degen plays.
Last week, we emphasized the importance of tuning out the noise on CT(Crypto Twitter) and not getting swayed by every twist and turn. Fast forward a week, and crypto Twitter is bullish once again. The once-apathetic crowd is now all hyped up. Why the change?
CoinTelegraph, in a seriously 'WTF' moment, dropped some fake news about a BTC ETF approval. But then, reality check – no legit source, just that weird tweet from CoinTelegraph. The euphoria tanked, especially after it got out that it was fake news. And we fully retraced.
What's amusing is that there were screenshots from Cobie floating around later on, suggesting some random person might've fed this to CoinTelegraph, and they seemingly posted without verification.
And, we guess, someone at CoinTelegraph had a good payday thanks to this.
Conclusion we can make – a lot of peeps are underallocated in the market they are spending 24/7. Pretty dumb, as for me.Larry Fink is still on his Bitcoin and crypto endorsement spree. It's all about the flight to quality. When the head of BlackRock is backing your magic internet coins, what do you need for a bullish long-term view? Exactly, nothing. So stop being pussy.
The Cycle of Bitcoin Changing Hands
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-42-2023/
“In this report we expanded on the theme of capital rotation, however this time focused on the cons changing hands within the Bitcoin holder-base. We utilize the powerful set of tools available within the age bands of the Realized Cap, and isolated sub-groups thatbest describe capital rotation throughout the cycle.By measuring the difference between the wealth held by long-term and short-term investors, we can model the ebb and flow of supply and demand forces. From this, we can see that the current market structure very much resembles the recovery phase from a major bear market, with similarities to both 2016 and 2019.”
Glassnode
🔎 Other thoughts (copium) of OGs about the Market:
Weekly Alpha:
Reminder on how to play out bull run
Grayscale discount by Dylan LeClair
SEC drops lawsuit against Ripple XRP executives.
🧠 Stay strong, stay solvent, and you'll be rocking the coming Bull Market. It’s really important to show up, level up your skills, and educate yourself while we have time for that.
Narratives for Rotatoooors
FriendTech + Forks of FT = ♡
We've lost count of how often we write about this narrative, but it's still with us and it's still one of the best, so it's our duty to keep you up to date with all the news from this sphere.
While not so long ago every new fork of FT could launch and get at least $100k TVL at the start, with only buy/sell shares and e.g. a feed with posts from users (This is a hint to Cipher Rip), now things are much more complicated.
Firstly, the FT Influencers, who are in fact the catalysts of pump the next fork, have become more selective about registrations in new apps and now you will not see for example Vombatus or L absolutely everywhere.
Secondly, as mentioned above, both users and Influencers have become more picky about the functionality of the fork, many of them have been hacked, many of them failed to implement attractive functionality.
Now, creating a low-quality product, even if it is on a new chain, will not help the project to get an influx of users. The only successful fork this week was Tomo, thanks to its ready functionality, nice interface and fair launch.
Miguelrare wrote about it on the our discord when TVL was around $10k and already at that moment there was a founder of Polychain registered there..
This leads to two interesting thoughts:
1) Polychain may have invested in them
2) Now new SocialFi apps, in order to become a real competitor to FT, besides what I have listed above, need new functionality to attract the user (Tomo had unclaimed profiles) and a good team and/or support from VCs/Angel Investors.
Well, speaking ofFriendTech, since our last substack we haven't changed our opinion that there will be a new wave of hype soon, which we had last time after the same TVL dump.
GameFi
So far, this narrative is not so bright, unlike SocialFi, but interesting news around web3 games is gradually emerging.
The latest one is the launch of Big Time, about which almost all CTs were talking, because now you can finally download and play their game.
By the way Parallel, also one of the biggest gamefi projects recently announced that they have a page in Steam. There are also a lot of early projects related to this narrative, and older ones like OhBabyGames are actively engaging with their audience.
So far, we continue to follow the new projects and of course, it would be very cool if all the old projects that have been in development for a year started launching their products, because all this hype would definitely revitalize this sector.
Early projects (mostly Degen plays)
Cove Finance
Cove Finance is a new yield optimizer which will allow users earn the best yields on-chain without the hassle of managing a portfolio.Protocol built on Yearn Finance and optimized by Gauntlet.
Chain: Ethereum
Narrative: DeFi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/cove_fi
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 18th.
In addition to degens and great Influencers, some VCs and founders of well-known projects followed them. So perhaps team raised a seed round.
Xend Tech
XEND is a new SocialFi platform built directly on X.
The main difference from other forks of FT:1) In addition to inviting referrals and buying/selling Influencer keys, users can buy subscriptions.
2) The XEND token will be launched immediately during the platform launch, so far no one has launched the token and platform at the same time, it's interesting to see how this will affect user engagement and airdrop farmer engagement.
Narrative: SocialF
Chain: -
Twitter: https://twitter.com/xend_tech
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 15th.
Xend was followed by some early degens and a few influencers.
Tiltyard
This is a new gamefi project by the team members of Cyber Stadium and Crypto Raiders.Nothing is known about the project yet, but considering that gamefi is becoming more and more popular, it is worth following.
Chain: -
Narrative: GameFi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tiltyard_gg
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 19th.
There are quite a few degens followed the project.
Catalysts, News & Updates
Flooring Protocol : Redefining access through µTokens
Other Dope Stuff you should check:
The 5 best alpha tweets by Aylo
Part 4 of Canto Thesis by Taiki Maeda
How to prepare for the next Bull Run by Minty
How premium bonds works and why it becomes an effective DeFi strategy
🫡 Thanks for reading, fren!
That’s it, the end of the 9th issue. Please, leave a feedback in the comments and share the word.
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