Moni's Edge #8: Pre-poor vibes are back
Alpha, Early Projects, Market overview, random thoughts, and just magic – wagmi.
gm, degens!
Soo, what's inside today?
Weekly dose of:
- Market update: Black Swan, Reasons to dump and hopium;
- Friend.tech forks + Scroll degen plays narratives.
- Potential Catalysts and events;
- Useful threads, articles, tools and random thoughts;
💜 If you love what we’re cooking here and would like to support, click the button below:
State of the Market and News
We’re back, again, to the point where we all are heading to "absolute zero" or goblin town.
The entire CT has changed its mood 100 times over these 2 months while we’ve been stuck harshly in the $26-30k range of BTC.
At the beginning of the week, stocks were skyrocketing, while Bitcoin still did not react and managed to dump. But later, the stocks also began to fall. The reasons might be:
Black Swan. A new geopolitical shock. The war of Israel with Hamas in the Middle East.
Yes, dear readers, wherever you are – take care of yourselves. Prioritise your safety. FUCK Wars.
Usually, such events lead to an increase in demand for oil, gold, silver, and a fall in stocks and other risky assets (yes, and your crypto magic coins are here too).Inflation is higher than expected. Raising the interest rate at the next meeting now has a higher probability. QT will apparently stay with us longer than we expected.
“Ethereum Foundation selling top” meme. Again, Vitalik and co. sold some Eth, and everyone else decided to join this party and form a local top. Although they only sold ~$2.75 million, which is not a size for such a liquid market as ETH. But a meme is a meme, so we dumped our bags and here we are. LMAO
TA (Technical Analysis) looks shitty for Bitcoin and risky assets.
If we close below $25.7k we’re going back to McDonalds HR team and begging to have us back to work.
$DXY bounced from the previous resistance level and formed support. How it works? DXY up –> BTC, Alts, Stocs down.
Crypto VCs and startups suffering is at ATH
DonAlt capitulated from Twitter because the market is cursed and CT reply guys are brutal.
🔎 Other thoughts (copium) of OGs about the Market:
Liquidity continues to dry up across the digital assets as network settlement, Exchange interaction and capital flows reside at cycle lows, heavily underscoring the current acute apathy experienced by the market.
The Long-Term Holder cohort remains resolute as their supply continues to ascend to new ATHs whilst HODLer Growth remains robust, tightening the active tradeable supply.
Despite large fluctuations in valuation for Altcoins, a symptom of the prevailing low liquidity environment, our new Altcoin framework which simulates the waterfall effect of capital rotation suggests a Risk On regime is not in play, providing confluence to the lack of liquidity available to digital assets.
Glassnode
🧠 Just a kind reminder.
Firstly,
You need to stop letting your mood swing back and forth 10 times a week just because the CT Influencers you follow are panicking and producing content solely to gain clout and to whine online. It's crucial to try to keep a cool head and not give in to emotional fluctuations."
Secondly,
Stop fudding, just stop. Being bear or a fudder in crypto means you're NGMI, fr. Fudding your own bags, then believing in it, and fading all the opportunities - that's what happens to fudders. Let them have fun staying poor.
Don't FUD the industry in which you're spending your 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. It's counterproductive, illogical, and harmful to your mental health. Be a bull, but be a smart bull that knows how to wait, learn, and grow.
Thirdly,
Stay patient. That’s it, that simple.
Stay strong, stay solvent, and you'll be rocking the coming Bull Market. It’s really important to show up, level up your skills, and educate yourself while we have time for that.
Narratives for Rotatoooors
Forks of FrienTech, yeah again
This week things are pretty sad for FriendTech, TVL is practically not growing, the number of transactions per day in the app also tends to go down, but so far it hasn't reached the ATL of late August.
So far, the identical dump situation that happened 2 months ago is still happening and it is likely that a new wave of hype around the platform will follow.
At the moment, the best fork we wrote about two weeks ago when TVL dropped from $120k to $80k is Cipher. At the peak a couple days ago TVL was up to $600k$ and is now at $465k$, this growth is due to the fact that they were supported by Arbitrum by retweeting their post.
In turn, the worst fork was StarsArena, whose TVL dumped from $2.7M to $0 after the hack. The funny thing is that they were backed by the Avalanche team without even checking the code. In this regard, we made two conclusions:
1) New users will probably be more cautious about new forks, so teams will have to check their code more carefully and conduct audits before launching.
2) In turn, the chain teams, using Avalanche and Arbitrum as examples, showed that it is very beneficial for them to have a good SocialFi fork on their blockchain, because it can attract new liquidity and activity on the network. Therefore, it is a good idea to keep an eye out for forks on new chains that can be supported by the Layer Foundation.
Scroll
The chain was launched two days ago and reached a TVL of $200k considering that the team didn’t announce anything about mainnet and official bridge. As soon as Scroll launched, some of our wizards and team members immediately bridged ETH to Scroll and started buying some memecoins, most of which grew by hundreds of percent.
But after just a day everything has abruptly subsided, new memecoins are practically not coming out and old ones have dumped.
Most likely, the new catalyst of liquidity inflow into the chain will be the official announcement of the mainnet launch, as well as the official bridge from Scroll. By the way, so far no fundamental protocol has appeared on this chain, only bad degen plays, all these catalysts may happen soon, which in turn will cause a new narrative of Scroll projects.
Also let's not forget that past the successful release that we are waiting for, similar to Base, there have been a few layers that have come out recently that have had severely poorly organized launches.
For example opBNB and Shibarium, we were also waiting for a Mantle narrative when the chain launched, but unfortunately the team couldn't attract enough liquidity/teams for that and only recently the ecosystem has started to actively develop.
Early projects (mostly Degen plays)
GM.io
This is a new SocialFi project by the Founder of Yoga Petz.There is almost no information about the project, but by buying a Cubz/Petz NFT you get access to the hodlers chat on their discord, as well as a GMlist, which will give you access to the beta test of the platform.
Some interesting messages about the project from the discord:
- ”First access, then you invite big name to join, you become his first buyer”
- “gm.io not only web3 socialfi, but also for web2 audience”
- “Phase 1. Early next week, create account, chat, test
Phase 2. Next next week, invite people, function, function and real social function”Chain: Base?
Narrative: SocialFi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GmioETH
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 10th.
In addition to degens and Influencers, founder of Yoga Petz followed this project.
Solmates
It's a new fork of friendtech on Solana.So far, the best SocialFi app on this chain was Friendzy, TVL at peak was 90k$.
In our opinion this is very low and there will be a fork on Solana that will reach at least a TVL of $500k, that's why we are keeping an eye on new SocialFi protocols on this chain.
Narrative: SocialF
Chain: Solana
Twitter: https://twitter.com/solmatesxyz
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 7th.
Solmates was followed by some early degens, unfortunately we haven't seen there any Solana Influencers yet.
Mesh Finance
Mesh Finance is a decentralised perp exchange on Base.
Mesh Finance is a spin-off decentralised exchange from GMX, also it is a subDAO of Basin DAO, which recently launched CDP stablecoin on Base.Chain: Base
Narrative: DeFi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MeshOnBase
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 9th.
There are quite a few degens followed the project.
YuYu
Aren't you tired of SocialFi projects?Yes, this is another protocol from that narrative.
We found their website yuyu.social and we guess that it is some sort of fork of Words Art where people created words and traded them, but here people will be able to post their pictures and trade them.
It will be interesting to see if this will be of interest to degens or not.
Chain: -
Narrative: SocialFi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/yuyu_social
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on October 12th.There are quite a few degens followed the project.
Catalysts, News & Updates
The Honey Jar introduced Standard & Paws (S&P) Rating Services
New Forbes article featuring Pudgy toys just dropped
Other Dope Stuff you should check:
🫡 Thanks for reading, fren!
That’s it, the end of the 7th issue. Please, leave a feedback in the comments and share the word.
Give us a follow on Twitter at @getmoni_io and join our Discord Community.