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State of the Market and News
🕳 Are we kinda back? nope
BTC went to 27k+ and then dropped to the 26,6k. Nothing really happened. There were rumors that this was due to the fact that someone was TWAPing BTC, for example Microstrategy of Michael Saylor. And this is not good sign haha, he’s good at buying local tops.
We’ve seen a lot of BEEF happening lately:
Banana Gun vs Unibot
Friend Tech vs Post tech
DWF vs Wintermute, GSR and others
What a cringe time to be alive in crypto… This is what I call bear market. Friends flipping friends, crypto companies fighting crypto companies.And Hsaka talks about it.
Okay, back to the market, In the foreseeable future, we cannot ignore strong narratives such as SocialFi hype, Automation Bots saturation, Memecoin PVP, and some random pumps in other segments. We've provided more details below. …?
🔎 Diving deeper into the market, here are some random thoughts:
We're observing plays on current narratives, given Bitcoin's price movement in the same channel.
There are rumors circulating about the Mt. Gox distribution happening in 2024.
There's a forecast that the Fed won't raise interest rates, and this pause in rate hikes, despite being predictable, seems positive, and we anticipate a positive outcome.
The next 9 days have historically been the weakest in the market. We'll be observing how this impacts us.
A proposal in Arbitrum has been approved, and we're expecting incentives for projects on their platform.
We've gathered some feedback after Token2049, and here's a summary:
Overall, both funds and smart individuals are geared towards long-term investments. They aren't overly concerned about potential setbacks and prefer to focus on the horizon spanning several years. The general mood is optimistic, and everyone is starting to prepare for the end of a cold winter.
VC firms show a preference for investments in well-established projects over early-stage ones. The sentiment is leaning towards lower risks and lower rewards.
”The Bitcoin market is experiencing a non-trivial shift in sentiment, with almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their supply. This has resulted in a negative shift in sentiment, with investors spending now having a lower cost basis than the rest of the cohort. This suggests a degree of panic is dominating this group, which is the first time since FTX collapsed.
Several metrics suggest that 2023 has seen a positive, but low momentum influx of new capital and new investors. This speaks to the persistent uncertainty coming from the macro-economic conditions, regulatory pressures, and tightness of liquidity across all markets.” – Glassnode.
🧠 Just keep learning, showing up and keep rollin’ rollin’ rollin’
Narratives for Rotatoooors
FriendTech or PostTech
The second wave of hype around FriendTech has passed and now the feeling that the project is stagnant, it was the same during the first pump of keys on the platform and the arrival of Influencers.
And at this moment Post Tech became popular.
In 1 day TVL increased from 10k$ to 700k$, let's analyze what it is connected with:
- New model, where you get a percentage of commissions when someone buys or sells a share which u have. You bought 0xSisyphus, then I bought it and paid 0.01 ETH commission, which is partially distributed among the hodlers of this share.
- A user-friendly interface that everyone knows. New users don't need to explore how interface work, because the team has almost completely copied Twitter, with the feed, chats where you can see each participant's message and so on.
- Influencers. Since September 20, a huge number of Influencers have registered on the platform, such as SizeChad, Levi, L, Bread and so on. No past forks has been able to attract all these guys.
Given that the TVL of Frentech is $30M, it seems that the application will continue to grow, the platform has a huge number of bugs, which the team is trying to quickly fix. By the way, the protocol motivates to be active in the application, as it is awarded points, which in turn will be converted into tokens and users will get airdrop.
At the moment not all the top ft accounts have moved to post tech and one of the best ideas is to catch them as soon as they appear. Also, it's a good idea to look at accounts that have been developing bots/perps and so on on top of frenstech, as they may start doing the same for post tech in the future.
At the moment almost all the attention of degens is on FrensTech and Post Tech, but we can't forget about the strong narrative of bots.
Banana Gun bot has a great relaunch, Unibot announce new tools for Frenstech.
There is a strong competition between them, because of which they will improve their products for users faster. The next two bots that may start being talked about very soon are Rampage by Grug and Wand Bot by OZ DAO.
It is still unknown exactly what tools they will provide, but they will definitely blow up CT. And of course we shouldn't forget that bots fit almost every narrative, even now it's a good idea to find a bot developer for post tech, buy his shares and expect a product.
Friend Flow This is the new fork of frenstech on Solana. So far the feeling is that it will be a complete copy, by the way there are very few Solana Influencers followed for the project, so if they can't attract them before launch, it's unlikely the project will be a success.
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on August 11th. As mentioned above, the project has a very small number of Influencers, but the degens are slowly following.
But the main problem here is that for such protocols, first of all, large accounts are important, and then alpha hunters.
Freactic As we realized, this project will be a kind of web3 social network where people can share different secret information, come up with interesting ideas that they can't do alone and look for like-minded people. The main thing to highlight here is:
- They have raised a round led by a16z
- The team has experience in product development as they have done the Hotnewcrypto
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on September 19th. In addition to the degens, Influencers and team members of various VCs are followed for the project
Lendly Protocol Stealth project that we only know one thing about, it will be the lending protocol. All that remains is to wait for the documentation.
The project first appeared on the Moni Discover off-chain analytics app on September 19th. A small number of degens and influencers are followed. But these accounts have been following this account for a long time, so maybe now they don't even know they are followed for a fork of frentech lol.
